- Analyst report claims primary smartphone market is expected to decline 14.8% in 2026
- Entry level smartphone prices have already risen more than 50% this year
- Refurbished smartphone sales grew 4% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026
The global smartphone market is heading toward a difficult 2026 as rising component costs force manufacturers to increase device prices, new research has claimed.
New findings from FDM CCS Insight note the primary smartphone market is expected to decline by 14.8% in 2026 as memory shortages continue affecting production.
The decline follows a 4.4% year-on-year contraction in the primary smartphone market during 1Q26, despite manufacturers and retailers building inventory earlier.
Memory shortages push buyers toward refurbished smartphones
As consumers search for cheaper alternatives to new devices, the demand for refurbished smartphones is expected to increase but so is the price.
FDM CCS Insight reports that some entry-level smartphones have already experienced price increases exceeding 50% compared with the previous year.
“Many consumers will hold onto their phone for longer, and these effects will be much more pronounced for consumers buying phones under $500,” said Ben Hatton, Research Analyst at FDM CCS Insight.
“Some consumers will need a new phone…and so we do expect more demand for refurbished smartphones as many are priced out of the new device market.”
The memory shortage driving these price increases is largely attributed to surging demand from AI data centers and AI-accelerated computing infrastructure.
These facilities compete for the same DRAM and NAND flash production capacity that smartphone manufacturers depend on, leaving less supply available for consumer devices.
Memory components now represent more than 30%…
